BMW 2002 Pricing - 2023 Year End

[pberen]

2023 Price Report -BMW 2002

©Peter H. Beren 2024

 

Well, it has not been a great year for 2002s; no records were set in the pricing department.  Prices for 2002s continue to fall across the board from the highs of 2021.  On the other hand, most market services reported similar results for 2023.

 

This year, 82 2002s traded hands through various auction sites across the country (and a few international sales noted as well), with an average price of $21,635, down 22% from 2022.  Tiis did not fare any better this year, with prices dropping 18%, and an average price of $33,323; 39 were sold.  The sell through rate was 73% for the sedans, but only 62% for the tiis.

 

For other 2002 models, we find 3 out of 5 cabriolets sold, with an average price of $64,952 (note that two of these cars sold in the low to mid $40s and one brought $105,000, the latter greatly influencing the average).  Only one S14 powered car sold this year, and it went for $55,000; again, the S14 adds about the value of the engine on top of the car.  Turbos saw 5 cars offered, but only 2 sold. But those two did very well, one went for $119,000 and the other for an astounding $220,000.  The other three went unsold for $75,000, $95,500, and for $96,250.  These unsold values have been on par compared to those offered over the past several years.

 

For Touring fans, four cars were offered, but only one sold for $20,500.  The average price for all four was $17,660.  Only one Touring tii was offered this year, selling for $35,000.  These figures are in line with 2002s and tiis.

 

2002 pricing is influenced by its model, its transmission, if it has air conditioning or a sunroof, its color, and its condition.  Using the past 36 months' sale figures, we find the following:

 

We have already noted the price difference between the base sedan and the tii, but here, a model year makes a difference as well.  This year, roundies in the base 2002 carry a $1700 premium.  In contrast, the Roundie premium for tiis is nearly $14,500.  Of note here, this years’ base 2002 Roundie premium is the lowest that I have seen since I started tracking 2002 sales in 2016.

 

Transmission impacts the price significantly.  5-speed overdrive tranny adds an average of $6500 to the value of a car.  Automatics added $1000 in value this year.  This has changed over the past few years, swinging from a negative value a few years ago to near parity last year to adding value this year.  Wonder what 2024 will bring for automatic values?  Dog-leg (1^st is left & down, close ratio) 5 speeds, add a whopping $16,575 in value.

 

Air Conditioning, which used to add value, is now starting to slide in value vs. non-AC cars.  This year, we see a $100 decrease in value for an AC car.  On the other hand, Sunroofs continue to add almost $1500 over slick-top cars.  Of note here, this is only a 5% increase in the car values, not the 15% that Hagerty calls for.

 

Color also affects prices.  Using the past 36 months' sales, we find that yellow continues to be the most valuable, yielding a 62% premium (note that there were only 2 yellow cars in the lot). White cars carry a 21% premium; gray, orange, red, and green carry 10%, 9%, 7%, and 2%, respectively.  Colors that decrease in value are black, blue, maroon, silver, tan, and brown.  These colors will cost 7%, 8%, 9%, 17%, 20%, and 27% less than the average value of a 2002.

 

But the largest single determination of the value of a car is its condition.  Most of our cars are number 3, daily driver condition.

 

Condition	2002	tii
1 = perfect, concourse ready	55,751	75,185
2 = excellent, everything redone, updated, gone thru	41,293	55,140
3 = daily driver, some faults or rust showing	26,956	37,830
4 = rusty but drivable	16,369	21,211
5 = project, basket case	6,613	11,293

 

 

Hagerty shows slightly higher numbers, but they have access to a larger database, including a lot of agreed values on cars.  They also don’t show pricing for #5 cars since no one insures

cars sitting out in a field.

 

So, there you have what 2002 prices have done over the past year.

 

And many will ask, what will prices do in 2024?  And here is where I guarantee that I will be wrong.  Looking at the numbers over the past year, I see a resurgence in tii pricing each Quarter thru the end of the year, following a drop off in the 1^st.  Prices for 2002s improved every quarter this year, peaking in the 3^rd quarter, then dropping in the 4^th.  Thus, I feel that we will see continued flat prices through the first half of 2024, and then prices will begin to improve.  We saw a lot of cars not meeting reserve this year, meaning that there are a lot of sellers waiting out there.  They could jump back in to catch the incoming wave when they see a bottoming out of prices or slight increases.  If this happens, then prices should take off.  It's probably not as exuberant as 2021, but an improvement.  Or not.

 

If you want to buy on a budget, Facebook groups or marketplace is the place for condition 3, 4, & 5 cars.  Bring A Trailer is the largest market for 2002s; there are usually 2-4 2002s each week on there.  Commercial auction houses like Barrett-Jackson or Mecum’s typically have a handful of our cars sprinkled about annually.  The really big auctions think RMSotheby’s or Bonhams, to name a few, will sometimes have 2002 in their ranks.  Or ask around your local BMW club or local BMW parts department.  The latter knows who is buy parts for these cars. 

 

As always, Caveat Emptor, buyer beware.  Do a pre-purchase inspection before handing over your money.

 

In the meantime, as Rob Siegel says, “Gosh, these little cars are fun to drive!”

 

 

 

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[bmdubl02]

Thanks for an interesting update. After 5 years without an 02 in the garage I picked up a very nice 74 Verona slicktop tii last July for 27K. Has the 5 speed OD tranny mod, non working Behr AC (everything is there, faceplate in perfect condition, plan to make it operational), front seats need to be re done. She drives like she’s new. Based on what I just read I think I did OK.

[Santawillis]

This is fantastic information! It would be immensely helpful to gather examples from past sales on BAT or other auction sites for each of the categories. This way, individuals can better understand the specific conditions. Personally, I'd classify mine as a 4.2, leaning more towards 'rusty but drivable,' but the presence of the spare tire hole nudges it slightly closer to the 'basket case' classification

Rafael

[VWScott]

I bought my Inka sunroof 5 speed square tail for 17k this year in condition 3.

[John76]

Thankyou @pberen for the informative '02 market report.

The good news is that the soft(er) prices allow more newcomers to our fraternity. 🚘

[AceAndrew]

3 minutes ago, John76 said:

Thankyou @pberen for the informative '02 market report.

The good news is that the soft(er) prices allow more newcomers to our fraternity. 🚘

 

Yes,  I've noticed an uptick in new owners over the past five/six months.  Mostly project/hobby guys.

[John76]

1 minute ago, AceAndrew said:

Mostly project/hobby guys.

They guys (and girls) this forum helps the most!

[AustrianVespaGuy]

Thanks for this, probably putting mine up for sale soon (yikes!!!) so this is super helpful! 

[jgerock]

Why is my picture showing up on this thread at a title one?

[VWScott]

The paint is a little tired,sunroof drags,interior trashed and 3rd gear synchro is almost gone,tire well in trunk rusted out and electrics a mess. All issues to be addressed. Electrics fixed and in process of redoing interior.

[steve k.]

4 hours ago, jgerock said:

Why is my picture showing up on this thread at a title one?

Giving you some publicity 

 

Steve

[bmdubl02]

8 hours ago, AustrianVespaGuy said:

Thanks for this, probably putting mine up for sale soon (yikes!!!) 

Why?..juz askin as I regretted selling my 73..

[AustrianVespaGuy]

14 hours ago, bmdubl02 said:

Why?..juz askin as I regretted selling my 73..

Fair question, and indeed I thought the day would never come, but something went south in the old engine (still haven't figured out what) and after a year of it just sitting in machine shops with no progress I threw in the towel and put a whole new engine in it.  But now that it's finally back on the road. . . I actually haven't been driving it much and I've also realized that I (sadly) didn't even miss it that much this past year it was down.  So maybe it's finally time to consider moving on to 'the next project'. . .

 

[rstclark]

The cars may have lost ground but the parts prices haven’t followed suit

 

I astonished by the additional value of an installed dog leg close ratio 5 speed at $16,575. My guess would have been

 $ 7 to 10 K max 

There must be some anomaly in  a low number of sales ? Pberen can you comment?

Also thank you for tracking this info 

Very informative.

[Polymerjohn]

I have a 1975 2002 4-speed with AC.  My car's original color is Golf Yellow!  I was blown away to read that the Golf Yellow 2002 is a rare car and also could possibly bring a premium.  I was looking forward to painting the car one of the new non-metallic grey colors that I thought would suit the car and me really well.  Now I must rethink this idea.  I have it running and driving but still far from daily driver status and my mind is blown that the original color may be the thing that brings the most value to the car!  I have prioritized the exterior now so I am more inclined to appreciate driving it and also boost the sale value should I decide to sell it. 

 

John in OK