I'll say it baldly- it's tire losses.
Transmissions don't heat much at all,
and the diff loses maybe 2% at most*.
Otherwise, it would melt. And they don't.
I measure my RWHP by lap times. it's totally not scientific.
If I want to try to see if a mechanical change has made a difference,
I'll look more carefully at GPS data and sector times, and try to find laps
where I came out onto the front straight at the same speed and direction,
and overlay those. I have to say, 87.6% of the time, I don't have to do that-
I can tell you that 'yep, it's pulling harder from 4k to 6k, but after that, it's falling
on its face' or 'there's a bump at 5k, but it's odd' and most of the time it's just
'yeah' or 'no' and not all that often:
'imma look at the data, because it's different, but is the good better than the bad?'
Same thing's true of suspension changes, too.
Tires? I always look at the data. What feels good is often really, really bad.
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*figuring that, if I make 165 hp, and the oil in the diff stabilizes at 200f with air temps at 100+f,
there just CAN'T be that much heat coming out of that tiny little ring and pinion. It's an iron case.
With not much surface area.