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Not to spark unseemly debate -- just a prediction

Your election result predictions  

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  1. 1. Your election result predictions

    • Dems win House
      4
    • Dems win Senate
      0
    • Dems win both House and Senate
      4
    • Repubicans retain both House and Senate
      6


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I'm sort of tempted not to post this, but I can't resist making my electoral prediction for tomorrow. You all get to laugh at me if I'm wrong. I won't gloat if I'm right.

Senate: 50/50 tie. Lieberman wins CT, but not near the easy win that is currently predicted; Allen loses VA; Corker wins TN; Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania go D; most likely Montana stays Repub, but RI falls. Might be the other way around.

Ohio: complete Demo sweep of all statewide offices.

Senate sleeper prediction: If Caffee wins in RI, he leaves the Republican party, a la Jeffords.

House: 20 to 25 seats switch to Dem, making 5 to 10 seat majority.

No editoral content, merely predicting the outcome......

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I voted about 6:30 this morning, local church around the corner from my house and then on to work. Dems will most likely take the house, don't think the senate though and yes, yes, yes, the annoying tv/radio ads are finallyy done and maybe the two parties can finally work together,

Tim

'69 2000

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Dems gain 2 seats in the Senate (no majority)

Dems control the house by 2 seats.

Isn't it interesting that the Dems are running in part on fiscal restraint? The world turned upside down.

Here's 2 more predictions

The congress will be more partisan than ever as the Dems feel vindicated by taking the house. The party moves further left politically.

Hillary will lose to McCain by 5pts in '08, and republicans take back both chambers of congress, with todays losers cast aside for true conservatives (i hope).

Chafee should form a new party with Jim McDermott of Wa state.

It will be interesting to watch the returns tonight.

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Chafee should form a new party with Jim McDermott of Wa state.

I've had conversations with several friend/relatives who are all very politically aware/active and all Dems. We all agree that McCain will most likely win in '08 and if the midterm results are not significant that the Democratic party might as well be disbanded and a new party built from the ground up. Won't happen, but it should.

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in some ways, losing for the Republicans and winning for the Democrats is good for America. The Repub's at risk of losing today are not conservatives (ex Santorum), and the Dems poised to win are not true lefties, but conservative leaning dems.

America needs party's with ideas. There should be differences between the two partys so we all have distinct choices.

The current administration has failed miserably with the public because Bush has not governed like a conservative, and his party in congress deserves the beating they may get today. 2 years from now, if the Repubs lose today, their party will be more conservative. And Dem's with ideas on how to make life better for America will be gaining a voice in your party, at long last.

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the Dems poised to win are not true lefties, but conservative leaning dems.

America needs party's with ideas.

Many of the Dems running are just that: Duckworth, Webb, Ford, Tester. And I think it is great that the Dem party is a big tent. The Reps alienate moderates likes Caffee and Chris Shays and ex-Jeffords.

Both parties used to have wings, ranges. I'm hoping that mine does once again.

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Isn't it interesting that the Dems are running in part on fiscal restraint? The world turned upside down.

hah! a LONG (well, 8 years =p) and PROUD Democratic tradition of balanced budgets and fiscal restraint (aka GOOD GOVERNMENT) stretched up until yer man took over in '01, then immediately went to shit. buhbuy massive surpluses for as long as the eye could see, hello TOILET.

Here's 2 more predictions

The congress will be more partisan than ever as the Dems feel vindicated by taking the house.

Lets hope not. Weve had enough "divider"ing.

The party moves further left politically.

Hillary will lose to McCain by 5pts in '08, and republicans take back both chambers of congress, with todays losers cast aside for true conservatives (i hope).

More like a jolt back to the center (saWING, pendulum, SWING! =)). Things have gotten SO out of whack, so much of our government is so corrupt and has been sold off to private interests, its going to take YEARS to even approach fixing any of it. the corruption has permeated the bureacracy and must be FLUSHED. Rovian politics have *nearly* destroyed this country, i hope the democrats are able to become the party of good government (again!) and FIX the mess!! i miss uncle billy!! ;-)

It will be interesting to watch the returns tonight.

yah, no doubt! this is the most exciting election i can remember... except maybe 92... ;)

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that one about the proud traditon of balanced budgets. I about coughed up coffee all over my desk when I read that. Good one, though.

BTW - neither party has the moral highground.

BTW - I replied above with VIN and module info. Thanks again.

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Having just watched the HBO 'Hacking Democracy' I fully expect the republicans to win handily today -- regardless of how people actually vote.

I knew those machines were bad and had read over the reports about how they are setup etc, but to see how easily votes can be manipulated with zero record or chance of detecting the fraud using those machines I really think our democracy is in serious trouble.

The diebold people flat out lied when they said there was no executable on those memory cards, and a little hex editing later you can have the card itself change the votes and print the records to reflect those changes and you'd never know about it.

its pathetic.

So its a win for REpublicans, unless they suck at hacking.

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that one about the proud traditon of balanced budgets. I about coughed up coffee all over my desk when I read that. Good one, though.

BTW - neither party has the moral highground.

BTW - I replied above with VIN and module info. Thanks again.

re: the hitch, im lookin into it.. ;)

re: lets say relative high ground, one end of the equation clearly deep in the muck at the moment.

re: jokes.. ;-p

and _Z_ i totally agree! i voted that way in this "poll".... ;-)

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for the repubs to manipulate the vote, they would have to dominate the employment base at every level in every state/local govt across the USA, which they do not. The one party that has a long proud record of vote fraud/rigging is the Democratic party.

What you're suggesting (and I didn't watch the HBO special) is theoretically possible I suppose, but impossile to actually carry out for either party due to logistics.

Here in the great state of WA, we just had the Dem controlled gov't recount votes just enough to elect queen Christine 2 years ago.

The Dems have resisted at all levels requiring valid ID to vote, proof of citizenship to register, encourage mail in ballots as the primary way to vote (which is the easiest method to cheat) and most any method to ensure that only those eleigible to vote are the only ones voting.

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for the repubs to manipulate the vote, they would have to dominate the employment base at every level in every state/local govt across the USA, which they do not. The one party that has a long proud record of vote fraud/rigging is the Democratic party.

What you're suggesting (and I didn't watch the HBO special) is theoretically possible I suppose, but impossile to actually carry out for either party due to logistics.

Here in the great state of WA, we just had the Dem controlled gov't recount votes just enough to elect queen Christine 2 years ago.

The Dems have resisted at all levels requiring valid ID to vote, proof of citizenship to register, encourage mail in ballots as the primary way to vote (which is the easiest method to cheat) and most any method to ensure that only those eleigible to vote are the only ones voting.

Yes out west its a lot harder to rig the elections. LIke here each county has different equipment and we all vote by mail. Its easy to do small fraud, but state wide it would be very very difficult.

Those states using the elctronic equipment would be much easier. For example, the diebold machines use a memory card that is inserted into the optical scanners (and similar cards are used in touch screens). Those cards are collected and tabulated using a single windows computer at each election headquarters. Those results are transitted and tabulated state wide.

If you were smart, you could replace a single memory card in one voting machine that could not only alter results on that machine, but also infect the tabulating computer at the headquarters such that all votes counted could be affected by a simple virus.

I'm talking simple too dude.. the file formats are just standard microsoft access database files -- they're not even encrypted or checksummed externally.

The diebold touch screens are also hooked to a 'semi' private network that allows the company to update software as they see fit, with no public oversight to what changes they make to the software or even for what reason they are doing the update.

The demos can cheat using the methods you talked about, but as usual (being a bunch of losers) they are lacking the ability to directly affect the actual counts (since companies like DIebold give gobs of cash to the republicans we can assume they'd like to see the republicans win).

Now another interesting thing going on is the 3rd largest voting machine maker is now owned by a company from Venezuela -- so while the top 2 are probably right wingers, the 3rd are Hugo Chavez friendly!!!

What the hell is going on ?? Since when do we let another country control hardware and software that counts our damn votes??

i'll stop my ranting now and go watch the damn rain :)

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may have misread the intent of your earlier post

Diebold could possibly do it, but I'd at least like to think it'd be a stretch for the 2 party's to organize systemic fraud without someone spilling the beans. Conspiracies are hard to keep quiet.

The Venezuela connection is worrisom.

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Here in Ohio, we have Ken Blackwell running for Guv. (projected to lose), but he's in charge of elections in this state and he's cozy w/Diebold. We'll see if he loses or "wins." Polls were VERY busy here. Good sign that voters are engaged. Hope so, anyway.

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Early exit polls -- yes the same ones that showed Kerry winning in 2004 -- show the Dems getting the Senate. Of the contested seats TN is a tie; RI, PA, NJ, OH, VA, MO, MT, MD all going blue. We'll see if it holds.

This is, of course, Joe-mentum's dream, as he now has the Dems under a barrell, threatening to quit cacusing with them and going red. Significantly increases his personal power.

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